The CDC reports a declining birthrate in the U.S., which is one of the many "mosquitos" sure to be impacting higher education in the near future. (graphic by Cynthia Eaton)

I was once asked if I had ever been bitten by an elephant. Wondering where this was going, I replied with “No, I haven’t been bitten by an elephant.” When asked if I have been bitten by a mosquito, I said “Of course, many times.” The wise person responded, “It’s the little things that really get you.”

It always seems it’s the little things that frustrate us most. Lately, I have been thinking and reading about the future of higher education and what that means for our work. Specifically, I’ve noticed many little trends—mosquito bites—that, when they add up, can be big disruptors to institutions of higher education, including SCCC. These trends, at both the macro and micro level, all play a role in the future enrollment of college students.

Macro-level enrollment trends

The most obvious of the macro level trends is the currently low birthrate in the U.S. When Covid first altered our lives in March 2020, I like many others consumed a lot of news. While watching CNN when the news focused on Covid, the news ticker at the bottom of screen noted that the 2019 birthrate in the U.S. was the lowest it was in 35 years.

Some thought that Covid would change the U.S. birthrate toward a positive trajectory as couples who are living together would spend time together being intimate. That theory is long gone as there is believed to be a baby bust instead of a baby boom during 2020.

The low birthrate has some experts worried that we could be facing an underpopulation crisis in the future. The leading cause of low birthrates in the U.S. is economic. Children require a significant investment in terms of family finances, and childcare services are among the most expensive in our country. On top of this, people are not making the real wages today they were making in the 1970s.

The problem of a devastatingly low birthrate is not realized until the problem ends up at our institution’s doorsteps. With a smaller pool of college applicants, fewer students are available to take classes as they pursue higher education.

Another macro problem is that higher education is having an identity crisis among Americans. In 2013, nearly 70 percent of Americans deemed college to be “very important.” Now, Gallup reports, about half of Americans feel a college education is “very important.” The same Gallup report found that in 2013 only 6% of Americans thought that a college education to be “not too important.” The number now is 13%. The views of college among partisan lines also shows clear distinctions in how people with certain political identities feel about the importance of college.

Views are changing on the importance of higher education, and they’re not for the better. It is after all tough to sell the idea of college to a young person when the expectation is to take on debt to make oneself better in a competitive economy.

Add to this the fast decline of international student enrollment. Four-year colleges and universities have known for years there is stiff competition for students in the U.S. and, to protect their enrollment and increase revenue, these institutions have marketed very well to students throughout the Middle East and Asia. Prior to Covid, international student enrollment had been dropping since the 2016-17 academic year. The fall 2020 semester showed a dramatic decrease of 43% in new international student enrollment and a 16% decline in existing/current students, which was compounded by a travel ban and the pandemic.

International student enrollment does not directly affect us at SCCC like it does at Stony Brook, but it does affect us indirectly. Stony Brook’s reliance on international student enrollment is important for their revenue as they can charge out-of-state tuition. When Stony Brook was not able to successfully enroll international students in the fall, they still needed to fill the seats and make up for lost revenue, which means they were competing with other institutions for a limited pool of students.

One question to ask is how viable is the long-term trajectory of international enrollment before the market is fully tapped? While SCCC does not have a large international student enrollment like Stony Brook, this is a loss for the college as the competition for students greatly increases.

These macro trends, combined, can create a bigger problem for enrollment as colleges and universities have to work harder to compete for students. A low birthrate, combined with changing attitudes towards the importance of college, and a steady decrease of international students all add up as 5,300 colleges and universities across the nation try to attract, enroll and retain students.

Micro-level enrollment trends

There are micro trends that are already having an effect on enrollment currently and will continue into the future. New York State is in big trouble when it comes to out-migration, or people leaving the state. In December 2020, the Census Bureau reported that from July 2019 through July 2020, New York had a large population drop by 126,335, or a 0.65% decrease. This was the largest population loss by any state in the nation, which could result in electoral changes for New York.

Newsday printed a special report from the Rauch Foundation in July 2019 that found that 67% of millennials (age 18-34) living on Long Island want to move away, citing high cost of living as their top reason. With population dropping in New York and on Long Island, where do we find the students?

On top of these local trends, Covid has exposed even more problems associated with college enrollment. Going into this academic year, community colleges across the country saw an overall 21% drop in first-year enrollment. Applications for federal financial aid for the 2021-22 academic year are down a little more than 9% and applications to SUNY schools are down 11% this year compared to last. Driving these decreases are the loss of students from underserved ethnic, racial and socioeconomic communities which, as we know, were also greatly affected by Covid and the past year’s economic loss.

Considering all of these little “mosquitos,” I wonder what our enrollment will look like into the future. What will we need to do to constantly attract students, as the pool of traditional college age students is vastly decreasing? These mosquito bites can add up while we're busy watching to see if the elephant comes along and decides to bite us.

We can actually manage mosquitoes. The FA has been through hard things before. We have been working through an unforgivable pandemic, and I believe our union is ready for any challenge that confronts us. We will face this challenge by continuing to attract students with the promise that they can earn an incredible, affordable education. Additionally, we must continuously work to retain the students from the moment they arrive in our real or virtual classrooms. We will do this by performing the work we have always done, while adapting to new conditions.

During our 51-year history, we are the union that has helped to educate, mentor and graduate the 130,000+ alumni who have made contributions to our local and national communities.